How a 1960 Water-Sharing Agreement Still Shapes Geopolitics in South Asia Today
Introduction: Why the Indus River Matters
The Indus River system is not just a natural resource—it is a strategic lifeline for both India and Pakistan. Originating from the Himalayas in Tibet and flowing through India into Pakistan, the river feeds agriculture, industries, and cities that support over 300 million people.
At the heart of managing this critical resource lies the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)—a historic agreement signed over six decades ago. But in the 21st century, climate change, political tensions, and water scarcity are testing the resilience of this treaty like never before.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty, signed on September 19, 1960, between India and Pakistan with the World Bank acting as mediator and guarantor, was established to ensure the peaceful division of the Indus River system’s waters, which span six major rivers.
- Eastern Rivers: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej
- Western Rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab
Water Allocation Under the Treaty:
- The Indus Water Treaty granted India complete rights over the Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—for unrestricted usage.
- Pakistan received rights to the Western Rivers, though India could use limited water for non-consumptive purposes like hydropower and irrigation.
Historical Context: A Treaty Born from Conflict
After British India was divided in 1947, the control of shared water resources became a critical issue. India, holding the upstream position, and Pakistan, being downstream, faced rising tensions that soon required diplomatic intervention.
The World Bank intervened in the 1950s to facilitate a long-term solution, resulting in the IWT—considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally.
Key Provisions of the Treaty
- Permanent Indus Commission (PIC):
A bilateral commission meets annually to exchange data and resolve minor disputes. - Data Sharing:
India and Pakistan must exchange information on river flows, projects, and usage. - Dispute Resolution Mechanism:
Disputes under the treaty are resolved through three stages: direct talks between India and Pakistan, review by a neutral expert, and international arbitration if necessary. - Project Regulations:
India must follow strict design parameters when constructing hydropower plants on Western rivers.
Major Disputes Under the IWT
Although widely regarded as a successful agreement, the treaty has encountered several significant disputes over the years.
Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (Jammu & Kashmir):
Pakistan raised concerns over India’s diversion of water for hydropower, leading to a 2013 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that allowed India to proceed, provided minimum flow to Pakistan was maintained.
Baglihar Dam Dispute (Chenab River):
Pakistan objected to the dam’s storage capacity. The World Bank’s neutral expert ruled mostly in India’s favor in 2007, setting a legal precedent.
Recent Tensions (2023–2025): A Treaty on the Brink?
Tensions over water have intensified in recent years, especially with India’s growing hydropower ambitions in Jammu & Kashmir and Pakistan’s climate-driven water crisis. In January 2023, India issued a notice to modify the IWT, citing delays in dispute resolution and the need for renegotiation.
India’s Position:
- Accuses Pakistan of politicizing technical projects.
- Demands faster, more modern dispute resolution mechanisms.
Pakistan’s Concerns:
- Fears India could manipulate water flow to damage agriculture.
- Alleges violation of treaty terms on multiple occasions.
The Climate Factor: Melting Glaciers, Shrinking Rivers
Both nations are already water-stressed, and climate change is making it worse:
- Glaciers feeding the Indus are rapidly melting.
- Erratic monsoons and droughts impact water availability.
- Groundwater depletion is forcing more dependence on river systems.
This raises the question: Can the IWT survive in an age of climate crisis?
Legal Status: Can the Indus Water Treaty Be Revoked?
The IWT has no exit clause, meaning unilateral withdrawal isn’t legally recognized under international law. If India ever attempts to revoke or suspend the treaty, it could:
- Be challenged in international court.
- Lead to severe diplomatic fallout.
- Possibly escalate to military confrontation in worst-case scenarios.
Future Outlook: Reform, Renew, or Risk Collapse?
There’s growing consensus that the treaty must evolve:
- Introduce climate resilience clauses.
- Update the dispute resolution process.
- Strengthen the Permanent Indus Commission.
- Enhance data transparency and satellite monitoring.
Collaboration—not confrontation—remains the only path forward.
Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Water and Peace
The Indus Water Treaty has weathered wars, border crises, and diplomatic breakdowns. But as South Asia faces unprecedented environmental and political challenges, the treaty is once again under scrutiny.
Its future now hinges on the political will of India and Pakistan to see water as a shared responsibility—not a weapon of war.
Table: Indus Water Treaty – River Allocation and Control
| River | River Group | Allocated To | Usage Rights | Originates In |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravi | Eastern Rivers | India | Full control for irrigation, power & domestic use | India |
| Beas | Eastern Rivers | India | Full control | India |
| Sutlej | Eastern Rivers | India | Full control | Tibet (China) |
| Indus | Western Rivers | Pakistan | Exclusive rights with limited use by India* | Tibet (China) |
| Jhelum | Western Rivers | Pakistan | Exclusive rights with limited use by India* | India (J&K) |
| Chenab | Western Rivers | Pakistan | Exclusive rights with limited use by India* | India (Himachal) |
* India is allowed limited use of Western Rivers for non-consumptive purposes like hydroelectricity under strict guidelines.
Table: Key Disputes and Legal Rulings Under the Indus Water Treaty
| Year | Project / Issue | River | Country Raising Objection | Legal Body Involved | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Baglihar Hydroelectric Project | Chenab | Pakistan | Neutral Expert (World Bank) | Ruled largely in India’s favor; minor design changes recommended. |
| 2010 | Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project | Jhelum | Pakistan | Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) | India allowed to proceed but must ensure minimum flow to Pakistan. |
| 2016 | Ratle Hydroelectric Project | Chenab | Pakistan | Ongoing discussions / World Bank | Talks stalled; India maintains compliance, Pakistan demands arbitration. |
| 2023 | India’s notice to amend IWT | All rivers | India (initiator) | Not yet resolved | India seeks changes in dispute resolution; Pakistan opposes treaty revision. |
Table: Water Availability and Usage – India vs Pakistan (Under IWT)
| Category | India | Pakistan |
|---|---|---|
| Total Share (Volume %) | ~20% of Indus system water | ~80% of Indus system water |
| River Control | Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) | Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) |
| Usage Rights | Full rights over Eastern rivers; limited non-consumptive use on Western rivers | Exclusive rights on Western rivers |
| Key Water Use | Irrigation, domestic, hydropower | Irrigation, agriculture, drinking water |
| Water Dependency (GDP Impact) | Moderate | High (agriculture = major GDP share) |
| Infrastructure Development | More advanced dams & hydro projects | Dependent on water flow consistency |
| Climate Vulnerability | Less reliant on Indus system | Highly dependent on Indus flow |
